Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 185.206265 226.528809 278.453928 349.889677 447.914791 5.813427e+02 7.834943e+02
2025-02-16 138.761571 185.725615 252.799007 360.248629 538.041534 8.420838e+02 1.461106e+03
2025-02-23 112.915076 160.523715 234.797761 367.866679 623.282484 1.156457e+03 2.616281e+03
2025-03-02 93.520675 138.539953 213.242860 358.479727 671.248005 1.443479e+03 4.254732e+03
2025-03-09 79.900806 122.199461 195.882378 349.010121 712.877154 1.761118e+03 6.906421e+03
2025-03-16 69.138953 108.352885 179.285413 334.744074 735.594896 2.059398e+03 1.085812e+04
2025-03-23 65.842472 106.725354 184.686526 369.178183 907.399341 3.130080e+03 3.021624e+04
2025-03-30 60.288818 99.959051 178.374973 374.201572 999.783495 4.091988e+03 7.555652e+04
2025-04-06 56.534552 95.932644 176.766492 390.522230 1145.771102 5.787338e+03 3.327424e+05
2025-04-13 51.674247 89.020000 167.545332 383.350143 1201.478107 7.135642e+03 1.682039e+06
2025-04-20 50.345022 88.944534 173.534332 422.003861 1491.674954 1.232195e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 48.702359 87.955805 177.181999 455.628995 1810.215813 2.174446e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 46.589967 85.863070 178.229026 483.683108 2165.183885 4.101694e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 44.188972 82.827741 176.353766 501.553637 2505.245745 7.899278e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 41.822489 79.551571 173.205801 513.803804 2846.609545 1.633334e+05 NaN
2025-05-25 38.821939 74.462969 164.218759 499.272751 2945.487602 2.633405e+05 NaN
2025-06-01 36.154988 69.866399 155.868223 484.606020 3032.031487 4.442351e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 33.557097 65.172373 146.534824 462.603640 3015.715429 6.639678e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 33.306003 66.019403 153.281584 515.952938 4031.347772 2.294570e+07 NaN
2025-06-22 31.853672 63.787941 150.525823 523.801738 4522.793613 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 30.913219 62.716781 151.133194 549.414635 5448.286712 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 29.265844 59.709186 145.202496 538.137930 5688.230876 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 29.126456 60.516043 151.617484 599.298696 7946.210025 NaN NaN